Digit analysis
Matches Differs Deriv Strategy: Probability and Payout
Matches and Differs use the final digit of a contract’s last tick. Matches wins when that digit equals the selected target; Differs wins when it does not. The two sides have different base probabilities and payouts. Neither a frequent win nor a large advertised payout establishes a profitable strategy.
DTide team · Updated
Keep the target digit and contract side together
For target digit 4, Matches needs the final digit to be 4. Differs needs any of the other nine digits. Under an equally likely digit model, the baseline probabilities are 10% and 90% respectively. These are model assumptions for comparison, not a promise about a particular market sequence.
Read the final digit at the instrument’s quoted precision. A trailing zero can be the final digit. Also check the contract duration: the deciding digit belongs to the contract’s final tick, which is not necessarily the very next observed tick.
| Contract | Winning final digit for target 4 | Uniform baseline |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 10% |
| Differs | 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 | 90% |
Use total payout to calculate break-even
Break-even probability for a fixed-stake binary quote is stake divided by the total payout received on a win. Total payout includes the returned stake. Net profit is total payout minus stake. Confusing those amounts can reverse the conclusion of a strategy comparison.
The following $1 examples are illustrative, not current Deriv quotes. Fetch the actual offered payout for the selected contract, market and duration.
| Example | Total payout on a win | Net profit on a win | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matches | $9.50 | $8.50 | 1 ÷ 9.50 = 10.53% |
| Differs | $1.10 | $0.10 | 1 ÷ 1.10 = 90.91% |
Worked example: why both payout and probability matter
At an assumed 10% Matches win probability, a $1 stake paying $9.50 in total has expected net result 0.10 × $8.50 − 0.90 × $1 = −$0.05 per trade. The large payout does not create an advantage by itself.
At an assumed 90% Differs win probability, a $1 stake paying $1.10 in total has expected net result 0.90 × $0.10 − 0.10 × $1 = −$0.01 per trade. Frequent wins can still be outweighed by losses.
These examples do not prove that one side is always better or that every future trade has that expected result. They show why the actual quote and a justified probability estimate must be considered together. An observed digit share is not automatically such an estimate.
Read the sample without treating a hot digit as a guarantee
If digit 4 appears fourteen times in one hundred ticks, its observed frequency is 14%. It does not follow that the next contract has a 14% chance of matching 4. Compare the 20-, 200- and 500-tick windows and keep the target attached to the observation.
A strategy hypothesis should then be evaluated on later outcomes that were not used to choose the target or tune the rule. Repeatedly selecting whichever digit looked best in the same history can produce an attractive result that does not persist.
Record a fair demo test
DTide Target is the native target-digit specialist. Review its selected direction, target and current supported settings before starting. A guide or sample frequency does not override the bot’s available contract choices or establish a winning setup.
- Keep the market, target digit, side and duration recorded for every order.
- Use a fixed stake when comparing entry rules.
- Record the actual quote and confirmed net result.
- Keep accepted but unresolved contracts separate until the broker confirms them.
- Compare net return on settled stakes as well as win rate.
Common questions
Does a 90% Differs win rate guarantee profit?
No. The profit per win and full-stake loss must be included. The actual payout determines the break-even rate.
Is a 950% payout the same as $9.50 profit on a $1 stake?
Read how the broker labels it. In the worked example, $9.50 is the total payout and $8.50 is net profit after subtracting the $1 stake. Always use the actual quote.
Does a hot digit guarantee a Matches advantage?
No. Its observed frequency describes a sample. Any proposed predictive advantage needs separate future testing against the quoted contract.
Sources and further reading
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